Bitwise Raises Its Long-Term Price Target

Bitcoin’s $1.6 Million Target Implies 34.3% Annual Growth

Bitcoin could reach about 19 times its model starting price under a forecast asset manager Bitwise released on Oct. 28. The firm’s base-case forecast, the outcome it considers most likely, puts bitcoin at $1,599,766 by 2036. That implies 34.3% compound annual growth from its Sept. 30 reference price of $83,557.

Last year’s $1.3 million bitcoin target covered the decade through 2035 and implied 28.3% annualized growth. Bitwise attributed the higher projection to expanding markets bitcoin could serve and stronger confidence in its trajectory. The updated outlook follows a roughly 53% decline from bitcoin’s October 2025 high to its June 2026 low.

Head of Research Ryan Rasmussen, a co-author of Bitwise’s report, acknowledged the risks in the company’s bitcoin price forecast announcement:

“Bitcoin will likely remain a volatile asset with sharp downturns, but all signs point to these swings weakening as institutional adoption deepens.”

Gold and Institutional Demand Drive the Valuation

Under the base case, bitcoin captures 25% of a combined gold-and-bitcoin market projected to expand from $31.1 trillion to $109.8 trillion by 2036. Bitwise expects rising government debt and currency debasement to support demand for these assets. Its model also assigns bitcoin 1% of a projected $303.5 trillion institutional investment market, alongside smaller contributions from other uses.

Interviews offered supporting evidence for the adoption thesis: Bitwise’s discussions with 15 institutions found that existing holders maintained their crypto allocations through a roughly 50% market decline between October 2025 and April 2026, while several bought more. Participants included pension funds, endowments, and sovereign wealth funds. Separately, the new outlook projects institutional allocations of 1% to 5% over the decade, implying $1.5 trillion to $7.4 trillion in purchases.

Scarcity underpins the supply calculation, which distributes estimated bitcoin value across its full 21 million supply limit. That includes coins yet to be mined and those assumed lost. The report placed circulating supply at 20.1 million.

Scenarios Put Bitcoin Between $130,686 and $3.67 Million

In the bear scenario, bitcoin reaches $130,686 by 2036, equivalent to 4.6% annualized growth from the reference price. This assumes a 2.5% share of the projected store-of-value market and zero penetration of the other modeled categories.

At the bullish end, a $3,667,911 price implies 46% annualized growth, with bitcoin capturing 50% of the store-of-value market and 5% of institutional investment assets. Higher adoption across other modeled markets also contributes to that scenario.

Technological disruption, including Bitcoin’s future quantum-security risks, and regulatory reversals could undermine these projections. Quantum computing uses quantum physics to perform calculations; sufficiently advanced systems could threaten existing cryptography. Bitwise also identified AI-assisted mathematical advances as a threat. It expects the network will need stronger cryptographic protections, with individual wallets potentially exposed if they fail to migrate.