How Low Can BTC Fall Before The Next Rally To $100K?
The rally Bitcoin made after the US midterm elections is gone. BTC is trading near $76,115, down 5.8% in 24 hours and 3.1% over the past week, according to market data. Ethereum has fared worse, dropping 7.8% to $2,242.
With buyers struggling to hold the line, investors are asking how far Bitcoin could fall before it finds a real bottom.
Bitcoin Is Still Stuck In A Range
Even after the sharp drop, Bitcoin has not broken out of its recent trading range. According to an analyst who tracks Bitcoin’s chart structure, the range is defined by two levels:
Resistance: $81,238, based on earlier swing highs. A daily close above it would be the first sign of strength.Support: close to the short-term holder cost basis and the 50-week simple moving average, near $75,600.
Until Bitcoin closes clearly above or below that range, the overall picture stays the same.
Why The Correction May Not Be Over
That view treats the current drop as a pullback within a larger uptrend, not the start of a bear market. There are still no signs that a low is in:
Bitcoin keeps making lower highs and lower lowsThe post-election rally has been completely reversedThe recent moves, up and down, have come in three legs, which points to a correction that is still running
How Low Could Bitcoin Go?
The outlook sets out several layers of support:
First floor: the 50-week moving average near $75,600. Bitcoin could dip slightly below it and then bounce back into the range.Main support zone: $63,326 up to the mid-$70,000s, the standard Fibonacci zone where a meaningful low would ideally formKey level inside that zone: $67,868, the 61.8% “golden ratio” retracementLine in the sand: $57,820. A drop below it would break the bullish structure entirely.
Short-Term Levels To Watch
In the near term, $76,680 to $78,117 is the first resistance zone. If Bitcoin stays below $78,117 on its next bounce, that would support the case for another leg lower. A move above it would make the picture more complicated and could mean a longer sideways phase.
The Upside If The Bottom Forms
The outlook also carries a bullish scenario. If the correction ends inside the $63,326 to mid-$70,000s support zone, the next rally could be the strongest of the current cycle. A standard projection from a low near $67,868 points to a first target above $100,000.
Bitcoin would first need to set a low and then show a strong five-leg rally from it to confirm the bottom is in.
What It Means For Bitcoin Investors
For now, there is no confirmed bottom. Bitcoin could stay in its $75,600 to $81,238 range for a while longer, or slide into the deeper $63,000 to $75,000 zone before buyers return. A daily close above $81,238 would be the first real sign that the worst is over.
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