VanEck CEO Explains Why Bitcoin Could Be Reaching a Bottom
VanEck’s Chief Executive Officer (CEO) Jan van Eck said that Bitcoin (BTC) is approaching a market bottom. He attributed the price weakness to the cryptocurrency’s four-year halving cycle.
However, analysts remain split on whether Bitcoin’s traditional four-year cycle still influences market trends, with some arguing that it may no longer be a valid.
The Case for a Bitcoin Bottom
Speaking on CNBC’s Power Lunch, van Eck, who leads the $181.4 billion asset management firm, grounded his analysis in Bitcoin’s hard-coded supply structure and its four-year halving cycle.
“Our view coming into 2026 is that Bitcoin is governed by the two things you know about Bitcoin limited supply at 21 million, and the halving cycle,” he said. “There’s been an investing cycle, Bitcoin goes up three years in a row, goes down pretty massively in that fourth year. 2026 is that fourth year. So that’s why we are in a Bitcoin bear market….Now I think we are making a bottom.”
Kaiko research supports the idea that Bitcoin’s price continues to follow historical cycle patterns. In a previous report, the firm highlighted that the post-peak drawdown from around $126,000 to the $60,000–$70,000 range aligns with the corrections seen during previous bear phases.
The report also noted that this price movement falls precisely within the historical window for cycle peaks, typically occurring 12-18 months after a halving event.
However, historical trends suggest that bear markets generally take 6-12 months to find sustainable bottoms. This is often marked by several failed rallies along the way.
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In addition, Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan pointed to the four-year cycle as one of the three key factors behind holders reducing exposure. According to him, this contributed to the price weakness. Notably, Hougan also suggested that Bitcoin is in the process of forming a bottom.
Meanwhile, a segment of analysts and market watchers has challenged whether the four-year cycle still governs Bitcoin’s price action at all. Some argue Bitcoin is tied more to global liquidity conditions and institutional capital flows than to mining reward halvings.
The debate over timing carries real weight for investors navigating current conditions. Nonetheless, while Bitcoin bottom predictions rise CryptoQuant suggested that market bottoms don’t happen quickly. They typically take time to form.
“If this cycle mirrors past structures from April 19, 2024: 2012 trace (777 days) → June 4, 2026 • 2016 trace (889 days) → September 24, 2026 • 2020 trace (925 days) → October 30, 2026,” the post read.
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CryptoQuant estimates that the market could bottom somewhere between June and December of 2026, with the most likely timeframe between September and November 2026.
These projections come as Bitcoin has seen a modest recovery amid rising geopolitical tensions. BeInCrypto Markets data showed that the largest cryptocurrency was trading at $68,217 at press time after rising 3.4% over the past day.
