What Will Trigger a BTC Price Breakout?

Bitcoin’s (BTC) relief rally to $72,000 appears to be cooling off, but analysts said that the BTC price may “continue rising” in the short term.

Key takeaways:

Bitcoin must flip the short-term holder realized price at $80,000 into support to confirm the trend change.

Spot volume and trading activity must recover to ensure a sustained breakout in BTC price. 

Bitcoin must reclaim $80,000 as support

Bitcoin’s 8% climb over the last three days to $72,000 saw it reclaim key levels, including the 200-day exponential moving average (EMA) at $68,000, and the 50-day EMA at $70,000, where it has found support. 

“$BTC is currently in a buy wall zone. The current zone is a support zone,” said analyst CW8900 in a Thursday post on X, referring to the area between $67,700 and $70,000.

Related: Bitcoin eyes $90K as Binance data shows surge in aggressive buying

The bullish case for BTC now hinges on cracking a sell wall between $72,000 and $73,000, where investors acquired 386,100 BTC over the last three months.

“There is a sell wall up to $73K,”  CW8900 said, adding:

“It must break through this sell wall to continue rising to $75K.”

Glassnode’s risk indicator reveals another major resistance higher up between the true market mean at $78,000 and the short-term holder cost basis level around $80,000.

“This is a particularly meaningful threshold,” Glassnode said in its latest Week Onchain newsletter, adding:

“Until price reclaims this level, the mid to long-term bias remains tilted to the downside, as any rally into this zone is likely to encounter meaningful distribution pressure from recent buyers seeking to exit at or near breakeven.”

As Cointelegraph reported, the bulls must decisively break above the $76,000-$80,000 range to confirm a trend change.

Bitcoin’s transfer volume cools by 50%

The market remains in a cool-down phase, with Bitcoin onchain transfer volume and spot trading volume still down.

The seven-day moving average of onchain transfer volume has dropped by about 50.5% to 660,000 BTC on Thursday, from 1.36 million BTC less than 30 days ago.

Additionally, spot activity remains subdued, with the 30-day spot relative volume across all exchanges muted below 1.0, significantly lower than the cyclical peaks seen in the latest bull market.

This divergence further underscores the lack of speculative intensity required to drive prices higher.

The chart below shows only a mild uptick in the spot volume, but nothing that suggests a meaningful return of participation.

“Until spot demand picks up, rallies are likely to feel fragile, with limited follow-through,” Glassnode said, adding:

“A clear expansion in volume would signal stronger conviction and a healthier foundation for continuation.”

As Cointelegraph reported, spot and derivatives markets are entering recovery mode, with Bitcoin’s spot net volume delta and taker cumulative volume delta edging back into the positive territory.