A Historic Bullish Divergence Is Forming In Ethereum – Record Users, Falling Price

Ethereum has clawed back above $2,300, with bulls now setting their sights on the $2,400 level that has capped the recovery throughout the consolidation phase. The price action is improving — but a CryptoQuant analysis has identified a development in the network data that suggests the current price level may be telling an incomplete story about where Ethereum actually stands.

The analysis examines Ethereum’s active addresses — the number of unique wallets engaging with the network on a daily basis. The 100-day moving average of that metric has just reached an all-time high of approximately 587,000 active addresses. Not a multi-year high. Not a cycle high. An all-time high — a level of sustained daily network engagement that Ethereum has never seen before in its history.

The timing creates a divergence that the data describes as unprecedented. Ethereum’s price is sitting more than 50% below the peak it reached in October. Its network usage, measured by the most sustained and smoothed version of the active address metric, is at a record. The two have never been this far apart in the same direction at the same time.

Historically, that gap has not persisted. According to CryptoQuant, there has always been a strong positive correlation between active address growth and Ethereum’s price — and the current deviation from that correlation is the most significant the data has ever recorded.

The Network Is Growing. The Price Has Not Caught Up Yet

The CryptoQuant report draws a distinction that separates the current environment from a standard bear market narrative. In typical downturns, price weakness and network weakness move together — fewer users, lower activity, reduced engagement. What the active address data is showing for Ethereum is the opposite. The continuous ascent of the 100-day moving average to a new all-time high reflects growing fundamental demand, expanding adoption, and an ecosystem that is becoming more active precisely when sentiment is most negative.

That behavioral pattern — real users continuing to utilize the blockchain while prices decline — is the on-chain equivalent of a business growing its customer base during a recession. The market may be pricing Ethereum as though the underlying demand is weakening. The network data says the underlying demand is at a record.

The undervaluation implication follows directly from the historical relationship the report identifies. Asset prices tend to track fundamental network utility over the long term. When they diverge — when the price falls while utility rises — the gap has historically closed in favor of the utility signal rather than the price signal. Ethereum’s price has moved away from its network fundamentals, not the other way around.

The report describes this as a hidden bullish signal — hidden because it is visible only to participants who look beneath the price chart. The bearish sentiment surrounding Ethereum reflects what the price has done. The active address record reflects what the network is actually doing. Over time, those two things have always converged. The question the current setup raises is not whether they will, but how long the gap can persist before the price catches up to where the usage already is.

Ethereum Reclaims Support but Faces Overhead Trend Resistance

Ethereum is stabilizing near $2,320 after recovering from the sharp February drawdown, but the broader structure remains mixed. The rebound from sub-$1,800 levels formed a clear higher low, yet price is now stalling directly into a cluster of resistance defined by the 50-week and 100-week moving averages. Both indicators are flattening but still act as dynamic ceilings, limiting upside momentum.

The 200-week moving average, currently trending upward below price, continues to serve as long-term structural support. ETH’s ability to hold above this level during the correction reinforces that the macro trend has not fully broken, even as medium-term weakness persists.

Price action since March shows a transition from impulsive selling to range-bound consolidation. The recovery leg has been orderly, with higher lows and controlled advances rather than aggressive expansion. However, the inability to reclaim the $2,600–$2,800 zone — where previous breakdown acceleration occurred — suggests that supply remains active on rallies.

Volume confirms this interpretation. The capitulation spike marked forced liquidations, while the recovery phase has seen declining participation, pointing to cautious accumulation rather than strong conviction.

For the structure to turn decisively bullish, Ethereum must reclaim and hold above the 100-week moving average. Until then, the market remains in a transitional phase between recovery and continuation risk.

Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com 

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