Bitcoin's 'Deep Value' Discount Faces Hawkish Fed Test: Bitwise

Bitcoin’s (BTC) valuation metrics continue to highlight a deep discount even as markets brace for a potentially hawkish Federal Reserve under new chair Kevin Warsh. Analysis from Bitwise Investments said BTC remains in a “deep value” zone after a valuation metric fell below 1.0, a level associated with long-term accumulation periods.

However, investor participation remains subdued, with CryptoQuant’s realized cap growth metric remaining in a bear phase since late October 2025. This points to a steady slowdown in fresh capital entering the BTC network.

At the same time, a growing list of key companies going public raises increased competition for liquidity across the investment market, so the focus shifts to whether BTC attracts new capital amid tighter liquidity conditions.

Deep-value or liquidity squeeze, which is most important?

The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged at 3.5%-3.75% on Wednesday, a decision that largely matched Bitwise’s market expectations and avoided the hawkish surprise the market had feared.

While BTC dropped back below $64,000 on Thursday following the Fed’s interest rate announcement, Bitwise described its price as a “deep value” opportunity based on its Mayer Multiple, which compares price to its 200-day moving average. The firm noted the metric had remained below 1.0, a level that has historically aligned with accumulation periods.

Bitcoin’s Mayer multiple vs Nvidia. Source: Bitwise

Bitwise argued that Bitcoin’s valuation stood out compared with AI-linked equities like NVIDIA, which were trading at significant premiums to long-term trend levels. The firm also flagged a growing pipeline of major capital raises, including potential offerings tied to SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI. Collectively, those deals could attract more than $200 billion in investor demand.

Large listings often coincide with strong investor appetite. They also absorb liquidity that might otherwise flow into equities and cryptocurrencies. Bitwise said that elevated rates continue to limit the availability of capital for speculative assets despite Bitcoin’s attractive valuation profile.

The subdued participation is also reflected in Bitcoin’s capital flow trends. CryptoQuant’s realized cap growth metric has remained in a bear-phase regime since Oct. 30, 2025, even as Bitcoin’s valuation indicators moved into historically attractive territory.

Bitcoin’s realized cap growth analysis. Source: CryptoQuant

Since entering the bear phase, the metric’s seven-day and 59-day moving averages have declined to 13.9 and 19.1 on June 17 from roughly 70 in Q4 2025. The slowdown suggests the pace of new capital entering the Bitcoin network has continued to weaken, highlighting investor caution.

Bitcoin researcher Axel Adler Jr. pointed to a separate concern following the Fed’s decision. While rates remained unchanged, the updated dot plot showed nine officials expecting at least one rate hike this year and six projecting two or more.

Bitcoin reacted negatively to the update, with selling volume expanded during the decline on Wednesday, marking the heaviest trading activity at the point of rejection at $66,200. For gold, an initial rebound above $4,300 faded, leaving the metal trading near $4,244 on Thursday.

The reaction aligns with Adler’s view that markets are pricing in a higher-for-longer rate path rather than a near-term policy easing.

Related: Capital B shareholders approve up to $120B in financing capacity for Bitcoin strategy

BTC traders split on the next move

Market data shows that BTC traders are interpreting the Fed’s outcome in different directions.

Market commentator Crypto Rover highlighted a newly opened $38.5 million Bitcoin short position using 30x leverage shortly after the FOMC meeting. The trader was reportedly sitting on roughly $750,000 in unrealized profit as Bitcoin moved lower.

Meanwhile, Bitcoin investor Jelle viewed the pullback below $64,000 from the weekly high of $67,255 as a routine retest of support. The analyst identified the $64,000 threshold as a key price point for buyers, adding,