Is the 10-Year ETH/BTC Downtrend Finally Breaking?
Bitcoin surged toward $80,000 this week as billions of dollars in short positions were liquidated and spot demand returned to the market, prompting renewed debate over whether the recent downturn has already bottomed. But while Bitcoin dominated headlines, analyst John Gillen on Milk Road Show argued Ethereum may be quietly positioning for a more significant shift relative to Bitcoin.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading slightly below the $80K mark.
The Case for Bitcoin’s Short-Term Momentum
John said the market’s recent price action has shifted his own read on where Bitcoin is headed. Asked to predict Bitcoin’s price a week out, he said:
He expects Bitcoin to trade above $82,000 within a weekHe framed the current setup as a “coin toss” between the market breaking back into a bull trend or failing to holdHe said momentum and FOMO appear to be winning out for now, though he was not certain the move would hold
Why Ethereum May Be Worth Watching
Asked how Ethereum stacks up against Bitcoin, the guest was careful not to declare a “flippening” is imminent, but pointed to a few specific signals:
Sector dominance: He said the majority of activity in tokenization, stablecoins, and what he called “agentic finance” still happens on Ethereum, which continues to hold its lead in those categoriesTechnical breakout: The ETH/BTC ratio, which he said has been in a downtrend for roughly ten years, has recently broken out of that trendWarning on follow-through: He flagged the breakout could still be false, and that Ethereum’s ratio against Bitcoin could retest the prior downtrend before any sustained shift plays out
He was explicit that this isn’t a guarantee Ethereum will outperform Bitcoin this cycle, but said the combination of a technical breakout and Ethereum’s underlying use case exposure is worth monitoring given how significant a shift in market leadership would be.
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