Polymarket odds put Eizenkot at 51% for Israel PM ahead of Likud vote

Ted Hisokawa
Jul 22, 2026 14:21

Likud members are set to vote Monday from 11:00 a.m. to 8:00 p.m. on Benjamin Netanyahu’s proposal to hold party primaries, after repeated delays.

Polymarket Reprices Israel Next PM Odds After Likud’s Scheduled Vote on Netanyahu Primaries

Polymarket traders are pricing Gadi Eizenkot as the front-runner to be Israel’s next prime minister, with his contract leading at 51.05% on about $28.90M in volume. The move follows a Likud internal vote scheduled for Monday, and the market’s pricing shows a widening gap between Eizenkot and Benjamin Netanyahu.

Key Takeaways

Top outcome: Gadi Eizenkot at 51.05% implied odds (Netanyahu at 36.5%).Catalyst: a scheduled Likud vote on Netanyahu’s primaries proposal coincides with Eizenkot’s odds rising +11.95 pp versus the prior snapshot.Timing: the market resolves by 2026-12-31 (and remains active for trading).

A report says Likud members will vote on Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s proposal to hold party primaries on Monday between 11:00 a.m. and 8:00 p.m., after the vote was postponed several times. Likud’s acting CEO David Sharan said a list of polling stations and addresses will be published on the party’s website.

Market Reaction: Eizenkot Jumps to 51.05% on ~$28.90M Volume as Netanyahu Trades 36.5% and Bennett 7.0%

This is a multi-outcome Polymarket contract: each candidate’s price is that candidate’s implied chance to be the next prime minister after the next election, not a standalone Yes/No on a single strike. Right now the market is concentrated at the top, with Gadi Eizenkot at 51.05% (No 48.95%) versus Benjamin Netanyahu at 36.5% (No 63.5%), while Naftali Bennett trails at 7.0% (No 93.0%) and everyone else is priced as a long shot (for example, Avigdor Lieberman at 2.6% / No 97.4%). The latest snapshot shows a sharp repricing higher for the leader: 51.05% current odds versus 39.1% previously, a +11.95 percentage-point jump alongside total volume of about $28.90M, signaling a fast shift toward a clearer favorite rather than a tightly clustered field. Even with that jump, the historical summary flags moderate volatility and a reversal_detected signal, which fits a market that has been moving in both directions before settling into a “strengthening” consensus. Because settlement is tied to who actually becomes prime minister by the resolution date (2026-12-31), traders are effectively buying a long-dated political outcome that can keep repricing as party processes, coalition math, and election timing evolve.

If the spread between the top two outcomes keeps widening (Eizenkot vs Netanyahu) without a comparable jump in mid-tier candidates like Bennett, that would confirm the market is treating new political signals as a two-horse race rather than a fragmented field heading into the long resolution window.

What Traders Watch Next on Polymarket: Election Timing, Coalition Math, and Cross-Market Signals (US Politics, Fed Cuts

Beyond the headline contract, traders often triangulate sentiment by watching adjacent Polymarket lines that react faster to near-term headlines and can ripple into longer-dated pricing. One that’s drawing attention is 77.5% “No” on “Israel closes its airspace by July 31?” with about $2.06M in volume, a positioning that can influence how participants think about immediate disruption risk versus business-as-usual assumptions. Keeping an eye on these parallel contracts helps contextualize whether fresh news is being treated as a short-term shock, a durable shift, or just noise across the platform’s broader event-driven markets.

Odds Trend

WindowChange (pp)24h+2.07d+2.0
Implied odds (last 48h)02550Odds %Gadi EizenkotBenjamin NetanyahuNaftali BennettAvigdor Lieberman

By the Numbers

Platform: PolymarketMarket: Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?Contract type: Price strike ladder: each rung has separate Yes/No; Yes means the spot price is above that USD strike at settlement.Resolution window: Dec 31, 2026 (UTC)Status: Active (open for trading)Volume: ~$28,899,825

Top strike rungs

StrikeYesNoGadi Eizenkot51.0%49.0%Benjamin Netanyahu36.5%63.5%Naftali Bennett7.0%93.0%Avigdor Lieberman2.6%97.4%

+14 more strikes not shown