Willy Woo Sees 20%-40% Chance of Partial Coldcard Bitcoin Recovery

Woo Points to Previous Recoveries

Bitcoin analyst Willy Woo posted on Aug. 2 that authorities could eventually recover part of the bitcoin stolen through the Coldcard vulnerability over a multiyear period, encouraging affected holders to follow guidance from JAN3 CEO Samson Mow while investigators continue tracking stolen funds.

Woo wrote on X:

“There’s a 20-40% chance of COLDCARD hacked coins being partially recovered by authorities over a multi year time frame.”

The analyst reinforced that outlook in another X post by sharing a table of major cryptocurrency thefts that ultimately produced partial or substantial recoveries through law enforcement seizures, negotiated returns, exchange intervention, and bankruptcy proceedings. The examples included approximately $6.4 billion reclaimed from the 2016 Bitfinex hack, $610 million returned after the Poly Network exploit, $200 million recovered from Euler Finance, $275 million restored after the Kucoin hack, and an approximately 20% distribution for Mt. Gox creditors.

Those recoveries unfolded over months or years rather than immediately after the original incidents, illustrating how stolen cryptocurrency can remain traceable long after an attack. The Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) notes that transactions on public blockchains remain visible, allowing investigators to follow the movement of digital assets over time. The U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ) recovered more than 94,000 bitcoin tied to the Bitfinex hack nearly six years after the theft, demonstrating how long-running investigations can ultimately lead to major asset seizures.

Mow Urges Victims to Preserve Evidence

JAN3 CEO Samson Mow outlined five recommendations for affected Coldcard users: document wallet details, file police reports, monitor efforts tracking stolen funds, retain hardware wallets and seed phrases, and reject anyone offering paid recovery services. He added that preserving evidence could help establish ownership if stolen funds eventually reach an exchange and become frozen.

Mow advised:

“Do not destroy your COLDCARD and seed phrase. Hold onto them as there could be a chance that stolen funds reach an exchange, are frozen, and you need to prove ownership.”

Recovery Scams Can Compound Losses

People who lose cryptocurrency frequently become targets of follow-up fraud from impersonators and fake recovery firms promising to retrieve stolen assets. The FBI has warned that fraudulent cryptocurrency recovery services often target previous victims, requesting advance payments, recovery phrases, or wallet credentials while offering services they cannot deliver.

Mow also urged victims never to disclose seed phrases or personal information to recovery services, aligning his warning with established protections against phishing and impersonation attempts.

Federal investigations have also returned returned stolen cryptocurrency through coordinated tracing and asset seizures. The U.S. Secret Service recovered more than $25 million across five investigations involving investment fraud, account takeovers, and related schemes.

Coldcard Flaw Renews Focus on Self-Custody

Coinkite identified reduced entropy in seeds generated through affected Coldcard firmware and instructed users who created vulnerable wallets to migrate funds after installing corrected firmware, rather than relying on an update alone.

Mow also renewed his recommendation that bitcoin holders reduce single points of failure by using multisignature wallets built with hardware from multiple manufacturers instead of relying on one device, an approach consistent with multi-vendor multisignature wallet setups.

Broader wallet protections include verified backups, offline storage of recovery material, and tested restoration procedures before significant funds are deposited. Multi-device security still depends on protecting each signing key independently and maintaining reliable recovery access across separate locations.